After some extensive testing, Lightroom is indeed writing .xmp files, and macOS is displaying duplicate .XMP files in finder, Photo mechanic is reading/writing to the .XMP and lightroom is reading / writing to the .xmp.
Adobe support just tells me that no network storage of any kind is supported, which sounds like some mumbo jumbo if you ask me. In all my years of large scale professional media, most of it has been with media connected over network storage.
But, I did test against an older synology NAS vs my new one, and the old unit doesn't have the issue. So I think it's a mix of Lightroom being insane and something new/different about the Synology NAS / filesystem.
I'm not really sure where to troubleshoot from here, but at least I know I'm not crazy and it's not a Photomechanic vs NAS bug of some kind.