I don't really understand Michael's situation from his description but I have a seemingly similar ingest problem: on certain ocasions of unknown reason usually one or two images are ingested into a next day folder than the image is taken. I ingest into folder with name but the name string contains {year2}{month0}{day0}_Eventname . Most images are ingested as they should but one or two happens to be located into a folder with the date of the next day. My first thought was to shoot the event ater midnight, but checking the image I see an afternoon image and file time also displays it to be shot afternoon but the next day the event took place (and perhaps a time after the actual ingest so it is impossible to be shot that time).
Since it affects usually only 1-2 images I simply adjust time with the appropriate tool in PM, but I cannot understand the cause and it may relate to Michael's problem...